OBAMA WILL LOSE, UNLESS. . .

Remember when we used to get news like this on this side of the Atlantic, straight news, where the reader is to make his own mind up?  The opinions stayed in the opinion pages.  An interesting read from our old Motherland.  

       so I won't be labeled as unfair   

Message of change will doom Barack Obama, swing voters warn

Barack Obama will lose the November election to John McCain unless he overhauls his message of change, outlines specific plans and reassures Americans that he is one of them, according to swing voters in Denver.

By Toby Harnden in Denver
Last Updated: 10:46PM BST 25 Aug 2008,   The Telegraph on line:  Telegraph.co.uk

The results of a focus group held by Frank Luntz, the leading American pollster, on the eve of the Democratic convention should sound alarm bells for the Obama campaign after a month in which Mr McCain, the Republican, has drawn level in the polls.

"The way that he gets here to the Democratic nomination - 'change' - is not how he gets there, to the White House," said Mr Luntz. "If it's change, by itself, he will fail. Change what? Change how? Change why?" Mr Luntz is a Republican but his work on focus groups is respected on both sides of the aisle.

Some 21 carefully-selected undecided voters were gathered in a conference room in a downtown skyscraper. Observed by The Daily Telegraph and a small group of other media through a one-way mirror, they were grilled by Mr Luntz about their views of the candidates in a two-hour session.

Although 12 said they had voted for President George W. Bush in 2004, not a single person described themselves as a Republican - bad news for Mr McCain, who has to shake off his party label to claim victory.

But these undecideds were willing to separate their disdain for the Republican party from the individual candidates. The one-word descriptions of Mr Obama showed he has mountain to climb to overcome the doubts of these swing voters in the swing state of Colorado - a top Democratic target in November. 

  Among the words offered for Mr Obama: apocalypse, terrifying, scary, pizzazz, unknown, inexperienced, innovative, new, charismatic, smooth, unaffordable, change, hopeful.

Mr McCain's name inspired: dependable, strong, experienced, scary, patriot, veteran, experienced, Bush Two, veteran, older generation, little boy, integrity, frightening, honest, older, cantankerous, repeat.

The reason why the Obama campaign is trying so hard to link Mr McCain to Mr Bush was clear from the reaction to the current president: self-centred, disciplined, unreliable, disappointing, conventional, dishonest, idiot, crook, nightmare, felon, self-assured, irresponsible.

But another disturbing element for Mr Obama was how sceptical and even dismissive most of the group was about the word that has been central to his campaign - change. Some voters believed Mr Obama could not relate to them and did not share their everyday concerns.

"Stop giving me all these general things," said Doug, 48, a fireman. "I want specifics, not pie in the sky. There were nods around the room. "He has to put some substance behind the charismatic talk," interjected another man.

A woman in her 60s said: "I want less oratory; show me what you have done and what you are going to do." Sondra, 43, a catering manager, said: "Change for change's sake got us in this mess. We want change but we're afraid of what it might bring."

Asked to address Mr Obama directly, the voters said: "How are you going to get it done?"; "Prove you have experience."; "How will you fix things?"; "Stop the dramatic talk, we want reality."; "Focus on issues, not personality."; "Don't just give me an empty balloon."

Most of the undecided voters said they wanted "accountability" rather than change. From a long list of election concerns, 17 highlighted a top theme of Mr McCain's: "Ending wasteful Washington spending and balancing the federal budget."

The next most important concern was "reducing inflation and keeping costs down", with ten votes while "Ending American dependence on foreign oil" and "bringing accountability and honesty back to the government" got nine.

Some favourite concerns of Democrats were virtually ignored. "Holding President Bush accountable for all his mistakes and failures" got two votes and "Improving our global image and public support internationally" just one - another indication that Mr Obama's recent foreign trip and speech in Berlin were mistakes.

Using electronic dials to register their second-by-second reactions, the voters were shown television advertisements from each candidate. Again, the results were encouraging for Mr McCain.

Although most of the 21 said they did not like the concept behind Mr McCain's notorious "Celebrity" ad, which compared the Democrat with Paris Hilton and Britney Spears - one said "crap", another "ridiculous" - a dozen conceded it made Mr Obama look bad.

The Obama ad that attacked Mr McCain for having seven houses and not being able to recall the number fell flat. But Mr McCain's response ad that highlighted a land deal Mr Obama had struck with Tony Rezko, a real estate dealer subsequently convicted of corruption, prompted more than half the dials to shoot up.

A couple of the voters suggested that Americans did not resent wealth. "I really don't care how many houses you have but it does matter how you got that house," said Doug.

A CNN/Gallup poll released on Monday showed Mr Obama and Mr McCain tied with 47 percentage points each, despite the abysmal favourability ratings of Mr Bush and Republicans, the ailing economy and the unpopular Iraq war. It is too early to tell if the choice of Joe Biden, the experienced senator, as Mr Obama's running mate will alter the polls.

"There's a golden opportunity for either candidate to seal this but neither has done it yet," said Mr Luntz. "If Obama comes across as just another typical politician, he won't be president. If McCain thinks experience alone is going to do it, he's wrong. It's dead level."